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The Robot psychs back Make 12 tricks

#1 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-November-14, 02:19

3: "Unbalanced -- 4+ ; 5-7 total points"
What does that mean?
Well, I've come a long way in six months. At least I knew to bid 4.
All the same, though I think the robots might be psyching. I made 4+2, 21 people made 4+1 and 12 made 4=. Same bidding, Same lead.
What's going on?

What shape does East have for it's 'unbalanced bid'?
What will you do to make 12 tricks for 100%?
Is 12 even possible on the lead?
Q led.

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#2 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-November-14, 04:47

View Postpilowsky, on 2020-November-14, 02:19, said:

3: "Unbalanced -- 4+ ; 5-7 total points"
What does that mean?
Well, I've come a long way in six months. At least I knew to bid 4.
All the same, though I think the robots might be psyching. I made 4+2, 21 people made 4+1 and 12 made 4=. Same bidding, Same lead.
What's going on?

What shape does East have for it's 'unbalanced bid'?
What will you do to make 12 tricks for 100%?
Is 12 even possible on the lead?
Q led.



East probably has a void, singleton or maybe a doubleton and a weak hand, and is bidding to the level of the trump fit. Standard strategy in competitive auctions. Why would that be a psyche?

12 tricks are only possible if you can pick up the hearts for no losers and the clubs break nicely (i.e. a favourable layout, which you seem to get often going by the last of your threads I looked at). Win lead in hand, heart to the jack, if it holds, cash ace,everyone follows, J everyone follows, heart to king, trumps now drawn, run clubs throwing spade losers, knock out A, claim.
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#3 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-November-14, 14:41

View PostAL78, on 2020-November-14, 04:47, said:

East probably has a void, singleton or maybe a doubleton and a weak hand, and is bidding to the level of the trump fit. Standard strategy in competitive auctions. Why would that be a psyche?

12 tricks are only possible if you can pick up the hearts for no losers and the clubs break nicely (i.e. a favourable layout, which you seem to get often going by the last of your threads I looked at). Win lead in hand, heart to the jack, if it holds, cash ace,everyone follows, J everyone follows, heart to king, trumps now drawn, run clubs throwing spade losers, knock out A, claim.


So, just to be clear.
You think that East has one of the following three hand types:
  • A void e.g. 5440 or 6430 accounting for about 2.5% of all shapes
  • A singleton e.g 5431 (my personal favourite) accounting for 13.1% of all hand shapes
  • A doubleton e.g 4432 or 5332 accounting for 37.1% of all shapes.


But definitely not a 4333 (10.5%).
You may be on to something. Posted Image.
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-November-14, 17:02

View Postpilowsky, on 2020-November-14, 14:41, said:

So, just to be clear.
You think that East has one of the following three hand types:
  • A void e.g. 5440 or 6430 accounting for about 2.5% of all shapes
  • A singleton e.g 5431 (my personal favourite) accounting for 13.1% of all hand shapes
  • A doubleton e.g 4432 or 5332 accounting for 37.1% of all shapes.


But definitely not a 4333 (10.5%).
You may be on to something. Posted Image.


Normally 5332 and 4432 are considered balanced, 5422 is not.
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#5 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-November-14, 17:24

I just had a brain scan (20 minutes ago) to see if I have a hole in my head. The results aren't back yet. But as it stands, on the whole, I agree.
After I played the hand, and took 12 tricks, I assumed that I would get a zero which is what generally happens when I make 4+2 because it implies that I should have been in 6 like all the clever people.
That's what surprised me about this hand. After I played it and made it, I thought that it was rather straightforward. Which probably suggests that I found the right line by accident.
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#6 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-November-15, 07:38

View Postpilowsky, on 2020-November-14, 14:41, said:

So, just to be clear.
You think that East has one of the following three hand types:
  • A void e.g. 5440 or 6430 accounting for about 2.5% of all shapes
  • A singleton e.g 5431 (my personal favourite) accounting for 13.1% of all hand shapes
  • A doubleton e.g 4432 or 5332 accounting for 37.1% of all shapes.


But definitely not a 4333 (10.5%).
You may be on to something. Posted Image.


I wouldn't pre-emptively raise partner's overcall with four card support on a 4333 shape at red. That is being too aggressive IMO, and is asking for -200.
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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-November-15, 08:13

View Postpilowsky, on 2020-November-14, 17:24, said:

I just had a brain scan (20 minutes ago) to see if I have a hole in my head. The results aren't back yet. But as it stands, on the whole, I agree.
After I played the hand, and took 12 tricks, I assumed that I would get a zero which is what generally happens when I make 4+2 because it implies that I should have been in 6 like all the clever people.
That's what surprised me about this hand. After I played it and made it, I thought that it was rather straightforward. Which probably suggests that I found the right line by accident.


Well all the clever people in 6 get 2 aces cashed against them, 4+2 is usually OK in those circumstances
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#8 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-November-15, 23:43

Pilowsky '3: "Unbalanced -- 4+ ; 5-7 total points" What does that mean? Well, I've come a long way in six months. At least I knew to bid 4. All the same, though I think the robots might be psyching. I made 4+2, 21 people made 4+1 and 12 made 4=. Same bidding, Same lead.What's going on? What shape does East have for it's 'unbalanced bid'? What will you do to make 12 tricks for 100%? Is 12 even possible on the lead?'
++++++++++++++++++++
IMO, Pilowskis right. East must have psyched to allow declarer to make 12 tricks because West has to have 2-3 s and 2-3 s, as in the diagram on the left.

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#9 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-November-16, 01:33

The perspicacious player from the polar regions north of England has pretty much nailed it.
Here's the hand as I played it.
...and here's what almost everyone else did for some reason.
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-November-16, 05:36

View Postpilowsky, on 2020-November-16, 01:33, said:

The perspicacious player from the polar regions north of England has pretty much nailed it.
Here's the hand as I played it.
...and here's what almost everyone else did for some reason.


If W is 5431 and E 4144 with both Qs as the stiffs they fare much better than you do I think.
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#11 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-November-16, 12:59

That would be terrible. I would have a heart attack if I got inverted Q-waves Posted Image.
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